The Bains Agenda

The common conspiracy from fans outside the ‘top 6’ (Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham) is that referees favour big clubs.

In particular, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United.

The portmanteau ‘LiVARpool’ has been used on social media to allege bias towards Liverpool for instance for years.

Wolves manager Gary O Neil alleged a ‘big guy’ bias in relation to Man City.

Manchester United, thanks to the Ferguson years and the perceived bias then, will always have the accusation levelled at them until fans become young to remember.

Maybe the idea is that big clubs have more money and can bribe the refs (City don’t help themselves here with the FFP charges), that they have more fans able to sway the scared referees or that the perceived higher quality of these teams means referees are more lenient.

Or perhaps a generalised conspiracy that power wants to please the big boys at the expense of the ‘little man’ as in society.

It is difficult to analyse or prove alleged referee bias as there are too many variables to control.

Looking at statistics such as penalties won aren’t reliable at all given how small the numbers are. A very ‘lucky’ team wins 10 penalties in a season.

Hypothetically, 3 or 4 penalties won can catapult a team from 20^th to 1^st in the ‘penalties won’ metric making it an unreliable sample size.

So, I thought of a more accurate judgement; one that involved statistics in the hundreds.

I typed in ‘fouls won by team premier league 24/25’ and there was one website that has the data: StatsMuse.com.

This is still a highly problematic statistic because it relies on so many uncontrolled factors like possession, individual players and their styles, the speed teams play, how many long balls they play etc.

However, I thought I’d look for any outliers or general trends.

The numbers range from the highest of 380 fouls won (Aston Villa) to the lowest of 258 (Brentford) – a good spread.

According to them, in terms of fouls won by team this season Manchester City rank 17^th, United 18^th and Liverpool 19^th.

Huh? I thought Liverpool and City get all the decisions. And everybody knows the referees love Man United.

Perhaps the big clubs just receive less fouls. Yet, Arsenal rank 9^th, Chelsea 10^th and Tottenham 2^nd.

Or is there a regional bias? Just as in British society, everything funnels to London and neglects the North, we all know how that is – right Warnock?

Except in 20th sit Brentford.

Manchester City have been the best team in England across recent years, winning the most titles, playing the most attractive football with very high possession (in theory a recipe for many fouls won) under Pep Guardiola.

Liverpool for their part have played a worthy challenger, with Arsenal, and are about to win a second title this season.

Well, maybe it’s all just random coincidence this season.

But, the rank for Manchester City over the last 5 seasons looks like this:

20/21 15th

21/22 16th

22/23 14th

23/24 9th

24/25 17th (so far)

Since the dreaded COVID-19 season, Liverpool rank:

20/21 19th

21/22 19th

22/23 18th

23/24 14th

24/25 19th (so far)

This suggests a clear pattern. Both teams have been brilliant and have had theoretically foul gathering dribblers such as Salah, Mane, Grealish, Sterling etc. in that time.

Manchester United have been poorer as a team but it’s hard to understand how they receive less fouls than 17 other teams even this season.

Unlike O’Neil or the rather laughable Ange Postecoglou who implied a refereeing and media bias against Tottenham (Spurs have won the 2nd most fouls by the way – poor Ange) I won’t allege conspiracy.

There may be a rational explanation I haven’t worked out.

Or, if I were to have my fun, maybe it goes full circle and the allegations put pressure on referees to appear non biased and they overcompensate.

Regardless, I think it is intriguing that the two best teams of the last five years in England and the behemoth that is Man Utd actually receive amongst the fewest fouls of any.